{ "_": "THE SOFTWARE SURVIVAL RECORD - publication figures, derived from disk.", "_rule": "No number reaches the publication except through this file. Re-run to re-derive.", "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:10:27.325Z", "ledger": { "records": 26992, "observations": 26980, "runs": 12, "caveat": "Runs are not observations. Every rate below is computed over first-look observations only; later rounds are confirmation passes with a declared directional bias." }, "arms": { "A": { "observed": 1488, "observable": 1257, "excludedFromDenominator": 231, "dark": 53, "darkRatePct": 4.22, "bySignal": { "BLOCKED_INCONCLUSIVE": 231, "RESOLVING_OK": 1130, "CROSS_DOMAIN_REDIRECT": 74, "NO_A_RECORD": 46, "PARKED_NAMESERVERS": 7 }, "label": "Vendors named in our own articles", "population": "Selection-biased to the verticals this network covers. Enrichment, not a sample of industry.", "caveat": "NOT an industry rate. Clustered by property - one property carried 6.7% dark against a 3.5% baseline, so this arm largely measures the sectors we write about." }, "B": { "observed": 1281, "observable": 1260, "excludedFromDenominator": 21, "dark": 6, "darkRatePct": 0.48, "bySignal": { "RESOLVING_OK": 1224, "BLOCKED_INCONCLUSIVE": 21, "CROSS_DOMAIN_REDIRECT": 30, "NO_A_RECORD": 6 }, "label": "Y Combinator 2025-26 batches, taken whole", "population": "Funded and vetted. Every batch taken entire, so no selection inside the cohort.", "caveat": "Funded and vetted companies are the least representative population in the study, deliberately - it is the control." }, "C": { "observed": 22120, "observable": 19804, "excludedFromDenominator": 2316, "dark": 2029, "darkRatePct": 10.25, "bySignal": { "NO_A_RECORD": 2004, "RESOLVING_OK": 16931, "BLOCKED_INCONCLUSIVE": 2308, "CROSS_DOMAIN_REDIRECT": 844, "PARKED_NAMESERVERS": 25, "EMPTY_RESPONSE": 3, "UNVERIFIABLE": 5 }, "label": "Show HN launches 2025-26", "population": "Skewed unfunded: technical, English-speaking, developer-tools-heavy.", "caveat": "Skewed unfunded, never pure. Many rows are projects rather than businesses, and a non-technical founder's SaaS never appears here at all." } }, "fundedVsUnfunded": { "fundedDarkPct": 0.48, "unfundedDarkPct": 10.25, "ratio": 21.4, "caveat": "Same vintage, same observation date, same instrument - but not the same population. Funded companies are selected for viability before they are funded, so this ratio measures the combined effect of funding AND of whatever got them funded. It is not the causal effect of money." }, "fieldSequence": { "A": "xsssssssxsxsssssssxsxxxxssxsxxsssxssssssssssssssxssssssxxssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssdssxsssssxssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssdsssssssssxsssssdssssssssxxsxsssssssssxxsssssssxssssssxsxsssssssxsssssssssssdssssssxssdssssssxssssssxsssxxsdsdxssxsssdssssssxssssxsxsssssssxsdssssssxdxsssssssssssssssxsssxssxsssssssxssxdssxsxsssssxssssxxsxssxxsxsxssdssdxssssssdsxdsssssdsssddsxsxdsssxsxsdsxxssxxsxsssssssssssxssssxsssssxxxssssxssssxsssssssssxssssssxsssssssxsssssssssssxsssxxxssssssssssssssssssssssxsssxxsssssssxxxssdssssxssdssxsxsxsssxxdxsssxsssdxssssssssssxsxssxssssssxsssssxsxssxsssxxxxssssssssssssxssssssxssxsssssssssssxssxxsssssssdssxssssxsssssssssxsxssssssddsxsssdsxxssxssssssssdsssxxxdsdsssssdddxsxsxssssssssxsssxxdxssxxsxxssxxssssxssssxsssssssssssxxssssxssssxxsdssssssssxssssssssssssdssssssssssxsssxsssssssssssssxsssssxxssssdssssssssssxxsxsxxsxssssssxssxssssxssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssdsxsssxxssssssssxssxssssxssssssssssssxssssssssxssxsssssdsxssssssxssssssssssssssxssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxxsssssxxxxsssssssssssssxsxssxxsssxssssssssssxxssxsssdsssssssxssssssxssssssssssssssxssssxssssssssssxxsssxssssssssssssssssxsssssssssxssxssssssssssssssxsxssssssssdssxssssssssssssssxssxxsssssssxxsxdsssssssxssssxssdsxssssssssssdsssssssssssxsxsssxssssssssssdxssssddssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssdsssssssssssssssxssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssxsxssssssssxsxsssxxssssssssssssxsssdsssxsdsssssssssssssssxxdssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssxsssss", "B": "ssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssxssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdsssssssdssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssxssssssssxssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssxsssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssdsssssssssxssssssssssssssdssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxss", "C": "dddddsxsssdssdssssdsssssssxssdssxsssssssssxssdsssxsssssdssddddsssssssddssdssssssdxdxddssxssxsxsdxssdssssdsdsxsssssssssssssxsssdsdsxsssddxddxsssssxsssxssssdssdxxsssdxxssxdssdsssssdsdsssdsssxsssssdsdxsssssdssssdssssssssssssssdsxssssssssssdsssxssdsxsdssxdssxsssssxssssxssddsssxsssxsssdxsssdsxsdssssddxsssssxssxssdsxssdssdxddddxssxdsssxsssxsssdssssssdxsssssssdsssssssxdsssssddxssdsdssdsdsxsdsssssxssssxssxsssssxdsddsdsxdsdsxxsddxxsssssssssdssssssdssxddssdxsxsxssdssdssssdsdssddxsssxssxdsssssxxssssssssssxsssdssdxsssssxssdxssxdsxssdsdsxssssssssssssdsssddxsssxsddsdsdsssssdssxsssxssdsssssssxdssxssxxdssxsssssssxsssdxsssdssssssssssdsssssdsssssxssdddsssssdssssssdsdsssssssssdssdssdsssssdsdssxsdssxsssxxsxdxsssdxssdsxsssssssxxsssxsxsssdsddsssxssssssxsxssdssdsssdxsssdsssdxssdsssdsdsddsssdsssssdssssssssssssddsssssssxssssssdssssdsssddsssssssssssssssxsssssssssdsdsddsxsssssxdsssdssssddsxssssdsssddsssssxxxssssssxsdxssdsssssxssssxssdssssdxsdsssddsdsddssssdssdsssssssssddxsssssxssdsddxdxssssssdsddsssssssssddsssxdssssxsddxxsdsssssdssdsdssssxssssddsssssssssdssxssxsssssdssssxdsxsdssssssdsxssssssssxsssdssdsxsssdxdsssssssssssdssssssssdsdsssssssssssdssxdsssssssdsssxssssdsxsdssddsxsssssssssxxssssdsdsxxssssdssssddssxssssssssddsssssxxsdssxsssdssdsssxssssddsdsdsdsxssssssssssssxsxxddssdssssssssdssdssdssxssssxsssssssssxssssssxssdsssdssssssxsssssssdsssssssssddsdsdsssssxssssxssxsddssssssxdssssdddssssssssddssdssssssssdsssssxsxxssdsxsdssdsssssssdsdssssssssssxsxdsssdsdsssxxsdsdsxddsssssxssddxsssssxssssssssdsssxsssssssdssssxsdsssddsssssdsdsdssssxdsssssxssxssssssxsssdxxssdssdxssxsxssdsdssssdsssdsssssssssssssxsxsssssdsdsxssssssxsssxxsdxssssssdsssssssssssdsssssdsssdsssdsdsssssxdxssssxsssxdsdsxxsssssxdssxssddssxssssdsxsssssssssdssssssdssssdsdsssdsssdssdsdsssdsssssdsssssxssdssssssdsxxsdssssssxxxsssssdssxxxssssssddsxsdssssssxssssdsdssdssxsssdxsxdxssssssdssssssdssdxsdssssssssxsddssssssssssdssxsssdsssssssxddssssxdssdssssssssssdssddsssssxdsxdsxsssdsdssssssdssssssxsdssxssssssssssssdssdsdssssxssdsxsssxxxsssddssdsdssddsssssssssssssdsssssssssssdxdssssddsxsssssdsssssssddsddsxddxsssssxsssssssdsxsssdxssdsssssddxdxsssssdxssssxxsxssssxsssssssxsssssdxssssssdssssdssxxsssssdxssdxxssssssxssdssdssssssssdsssdssssdsxdddssssssddsssssxsssssdsssssddxssssssdsdssdxssssdsxssdsssssssssssxsddsddsdsssxsssssxdssssxdsssssddsssssxssxssxssxsssxsssssssssxssssssssddsdxxssssxddsssddsxxsdddxsdsssdssxssssdxsxsxsssssssdsssdssssdsdssssssdsssdsdssssxdssdsdsdsxsssssssssdssdxssdsdxxdsxsssssssssdsxsxsssssssssssxssssssssssdddddssssssssssssdssdsssssdsxdsssssssdsdxsssssssdssxsssddxsdxsxssxdssdsdxddssxssdsssddxssdssssssssdsddssxsssxsssssssddxsssssxdxdsxsssdsdddssdsxsssssdssssssssdssssdddddssssssssssxssssssddsddssxdssddsssddsssxssdsdssssssxssssssssssdssssssdxsdssssssssssssssddxsssssssxsdsssxsdssxsdssdssdssssdsssssssssssxdssssxsssdsssdsssssxssxsssssssssssddsdssxsdsssssssssssdsxddsssssssxsdssssxsssssdsdsssdssssssssxssxdxsssxsssssssdssssxsssssdsssdssdssxxssddsdxsssxddsssssdsssssssssssdsssddsssxsxsdxsssssdsssxdssddsdssssssdsssssdsdssxdxsxssssssdsxsdxxsdxsssxssxsddsxdsssdsssssxssssdxssdsssdsdssxdssdssxxsxsssssdxdssssssdddsddxssssxsdsdxssdssssssssssssssssdsdxdsdxddssdssdsssssssssxsxxssxssssdxdsdsssssssdsssdsssssxsdxsssssddsssddssssssdsxssdsxssdsdssxssssssdssssxssdxsdxssssddssxssddxsssdssdsssxsssdsdddsssssxsxsxdsssssdssssdsssssdsssdxssxdsxsssssdsdsssssdsssssdsdddsdsssxssdsssdssssddsssssxssdssssdssssssdxddsssssdxssssssxdsxssdsxssxdssdssssdsssssssdsssssdsssdxsssdsssdssssdsssdsssxssxssxsssssssdsdsssssssssdsxsssssxxssdsssdsdsxdxxsssssdddssxxssssssxsxsxxssddsssxsdsdssssssdssxsdssssddsssxsdssdssxssxssssssssssssdsdssssdsddsssssddssdxsxsdsxxsssssssssxsssddddxsssddxsssxdsssssssdsdsdxssdssxssssssdsddsssssxssssxxdssssssdssssssdsssxsssssssdssssdsssddssdxsxxssxsssddxsdsssxxsssddsdssdssdsdxsdssssdsdxdddsxsssssxxsxssddsssssdxxsssssdsxsdssxsssssxssdsssdsssssssssxxsssssssssdssxsssssdssxsssssssssssssssssssxdsdsssdssxsssdsssssdsdsssxsssdsddsssssssxxxsdsdssxssxdsssdsssssdsssssxssssssxsssssdssssssxxddssdsdxsdxsxsssxssssxddsdssssssxsssddddssdssssssssdsssxxdxdxdsdddsddssdsssdxssssdsssssxsxdssssssdsssssssdsdssssdsssxdssssssssssssdssxssssddssdxsddsssssdssxssddssssxxsssssssxssssssssdsdsssdssdxxdsxxssdsdssssssssssxdsssxssdssssxxdsssdsssxssssdsssdsddsssdsssdxssdsxssssxsssxssssdssssdssxsssxsssssssdssssssssdsssssssssddsssdsssssdsdsssssssxssdssxssxsxxsxsdsssxsssssdsssssdsxdssssssssssssddsssssxxsssssssxsssssssdsdsdssddssssssssssssxssssddsxsssxssdssddxxsssxsssssdsssdddsddsdxdsxssxddsssdxsxssssssddsxxsssssdsssssssssssdddsssssssddsssssdssssssdssdssxsdsssssssssddxdsssssddssssssxsssssxssssssddsssssssdsssddxsxdsssssxssssdxssdsssdsssssddsssssssdssssssssssxsdsssssssssssssxsddsddssssssxsssssdxxssssssssdssssssdsssxsssxssssxddssdsssssssssssdsxssssdssssssxssssssssddsssxssssdxssddsssdssssssxddsdsxssssdssdsssssssssssssssssxdsddxssdsssssssssssxdsdxssxsddssssssssdsssssssssxssssdsxddssssdssdsssddxdssssdxsdsxxssdssssssdsdsdssdsssssssssssdsssssdssssssssdsssssxsssdsxsssssssxsddxsssxxsssdsxsssssssssssssddsxssdssssssdsdsssssssssddssddsdsssdssdssssssxdddssdxsssssssdssdssssssssssdsssssxsxsdsssdsdxsssssdsdsdsssdsxsxsdsssdddsdssddsddsssssssssxsxssssssdssxssssssssssssssxddssdxsssdddssxsdsdsssxsssxssssxsssssdssdssssddddssxsdsssdsssssxsssssdsssxsdsssdsssssdssdssxddssxdsxsdxdssddssssssssxsxssssxsddssssssssdsssdssssdsssssssssddsdxssssxdssssxsdsssxssssssssssssdxdssdsdsssssssssxsssssssxsdssssxsssssssssdsxsssdsdssssssdsssxdxdsssssssssssssssssssdsdddsdssssssdsssxsdssxsssdssssdsssdsdxsssssxsssssssxsssssssssxssdddxssddsssssssdsdsssxdxssxssxssdsssddsxdssssdssxssddsssddsddssssdsssssssssssssssdssssdsdddsssssssdsssxssssdsddsxsssssssdxsssdsdsdssdssdssdsssssssssdddsxsxsssssxdssssssxssdssssdsddssxdssssssssxssdsdssdsdssdsxdsssxsssdsssdsssssxxsxssssdsssxdsxdsssdsssdsxsssxdsxssssssdsxsssdsddssxssddsdddsxsssdssssssssxssxssxssssdddsssssssssdsssssdsssdsddddssssxsdsdssssdsssssssssssddssssssxxsdsxsssssssddsdsssssxsssxsssssssdsssxddsxdsxsddssxsdsdssssdsssssdssssxdsssdxdsxsxssdsssdsssdsdsxsssssssxxssssssssddsxssssdxsxsxsxxsssdsddssdsssssdsdssssxdssssssdssssssssdsssdssdsssxssdssssdssssssdsxsddsssssssdxssdsxssssdsssxdsssssssdsssdxdsssdssddsssssxssdsdssdsdddssssssssddssdssxsssdsssdsdxsssdsdssssdsssssdssdsssdsxssddsdsssdssssssxssdssdsssssdddssssssssssssssssxssddsssssxssssssddssdsdsssdsssdxsssssxsxsdsssssssdsdsxxsssddxddssssxddssdsxsdsxsxxssssssdxsssssxsssdssssssssssssdsssssssddssssdsdsssddssssssdssxddsdsssdsssxxssssxssssssssdxxsssssssssddssdddxsdxddsddssdsdsssdsssxxdsssxdsdssxxssssdssssdssdsssdssdsxsdsssdssssssssdxssssdssddssxssssxdxsssssssddssddxsssssdssddxxsssssssdssdsdxsssdxssssssxsssssssssxssddxddssssdsxssdsssssxdssssdssssssxsssssdsdxdssdxsxsssssdddsssssdssssdsssssdsssssdsssxsdsdsdsdssdsdsdsssddssssdsdxdsssssssdsddsssddsssdsssssdsssxsdsssssdssssssssdsssssssxdsdsssssddsssxsssssxsssssdsssssssxssssssdssssssxsssdsdsssssdssdsddsdssssdxdssssssdsdsssssdssssdsssdsdxsssssssssssssssssssxdsssssssssssssxssssxddssssxsssxsdsxssdsssssdsssddssssssssdddsdsssssxsssdsdsssdssxxsdssssxsdsssssssssssssxsssssssssssdsssssddssssssssssxsssssssssssssxsssxdsssdsdsssssssssssdsssssssssssssxsssdxssxdsssdsxssdsdsdssxxsdssssdsssxsssddxssssssssssssssdxssdssssssdssxdssssssxssssxdsxsdxsssdsssxsdsdssssssxssxsssxssxxssssxxssssssssxsdsdsdssdssssssssssxsssssssdxdssdsdsdsxdsssssxxssssssssssdssdxsssssssssssddssxsssssxssddsssssxdssdsdsxssxxssssdsssssssssssxxxdxsddsddssssssdxssdsssssxsssssdssssssdsssssxxsssssdxssdsssssdssdxxsssssssssssssxsddssssdxsssssdssdssssssssssdsxsssssdxsssssssxsssssddssxsssdsdxsssdssssssdxsdsssssssdsdsdsssssdsdxxxsssdsssssssdsssxsssdsxsxssssssssdssdssssdsxxssssssssssssxssxsssdxssdssxdsssssssssdxssssdsxddxssssssddssxxxxdssssssssssxsdssdsxdsxdssssdsssxxssssssssssssssxsssxxsssssssssssssxsxxsssssxssssdxdssxdsssdxssxssdsdsssssdddsxsssssssxsxsxdsxxssdssssxdsssssssssxsdxxdxssssdsddxsssxsxsssddsxssdsssxxssxxssssdxdssdsxxssssxxsssxsssssssdsssssxsdsssdsssssxssssssssssdssdxdssssddsdsxdsssxsssssssssssdssssssdssssssssxsssssssssssssxxxsssssssxxdsssssssxsssssssdsxsxsssdsxsxsxsssdssssdsdssxsxsxsssxxsssssssdsxssssdssdsxsssxssssssssxsssxsssssssdsssssssxsssxsssxxsxsdsssdsssssssssdsxxsxsssxssssssssxsssxssxxssxsssxssxxxxdsdsxssxxxssxssssxssdsdxsssssdsdssssssssssxsdxxsxsssxsssssxssxsdssxsssssxsxdsssssssxsssssxssxssxsssxssssssssdssssssssxssssssssxsssdssssssssxsssssssssssssssdsxdxsdsssdssssssssxssssssssssdssxxsdxsdsxsxsdssxssssssssdssssddsssdsssdxsssxssssssssxsssssxsxssddssssxdsssssssdsxsssxssxxssdsdsssssxssxssssssdssssssssssxssssssxsssssxsssssxsxssxsssssxsssssssssxsssssssssssssssxxssdssxssdxdssxssssssssdssssdsssssssssssssxsssssssxssssssssssssssssssssdssxssssxxxsssxssssxxsssxsdsssssssssssxsssssdssssssddsxssssssssssxsxxxssssssdxssssssxdsdsssdsssdssssssssssssdsssdxsssssssssssssxssssssssssssxsssssxsssdssssxsxsssdsdssssssssxssssxsssssssxsssssssssssssssdsxsxsxxsssssssxsxssxdssssssssssssxsxssxsssssxsssssssxdsssssssdssssssxsxssssssssssdsdssdssssxssssssssddssssssssssssdsxsxsdxsssdsssxssdssssxssssdsssdssxsdsxxssssxssssssxssssdssdxssssssxsxsssxsssssssssssxsssssssxssxsdssxsssdsssssssssxssssdsxssssssssdsssdsssssxsssssssdsssssdssxsssssxxssdsssssssdsxdsdxssdsdxddsssssxsssssssssxssdsssssssssssssssxsssssxdxssssssssssdsssdssxsssssssssxxsssdsssxdssssssssxsssxsxsssxssxxssssssssssssssdssssssssssssssssxssssxsssssssdssdssssssssssxsxssdssdssxssssdsssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssxssssxssssssssssssxssssssssssssdxsssxsssssssssssxsssssxxssssxssssssssxssxsssssssssxdssssdssxsssxxssssxsssssxsssssdsssssdsssssxxssxxsssxssxxsssssssdsssssssssssssssdsxssssssdssssxsssdxsssxsssssssdsdsdsxssssssssxssdsdsssxsssxssssxssssssssssssssssssxsssxssssssssssssdssxsssxdsssssdssssssssdssssssssssxsssssxsssxsxsddddsxssssxssdssssssxssdsssssssssxsssssssssssssssdsssdsssssssdssssssxssssxssssssxxssssssssssdssssxsssssxsssssddssxsssssssssssssssssssssdsdsdssssssssssxsssssssddssdsssssxssssssssssssdsxssssssssdsxssssxdssssssssxxsxsssssxssssssssssssxsssssxssdsssxsssssssdsssssxsxsssdxddxxxdsssssxsxsssxssssssxssssxxsxssxsssssssssssssdsssssxsssssdsssssxsdsdsssxsssssssssssxssssssssssxssssssxxssssssxsssssssssdssssssssssdsdssssssssssssssdssssssssxssssxssdsxssdsssxssxsdssssssxsxssssdsssssssssssssxssddxsssssssssxssssssdssssdsssssxsssssssssxsdssssssssssxxssssssssxssdssdxsxsssxsxsssssssssssssssssssxsssssxsssssxssssssxsdssssxssxxssssxssssssssssdsxssxssssssssxssssssssssssssssxssssdsssssdsdxsssdssxsxsssssssssssssssssxdssssxssxssssssssssssssssssssssxdssdssssssssssssssssssssssssxssxssssssssssdssssssssxsssssssxsssxsxsdssssssssssssssssdsxxsssssssssssssssssssssssdxsssxsssssssssxsssxsssssssssdssssssssxsssssssssssssxsssdsssssxssxxsxsssssssxssxssssssxssxxsxssssssssssssssssssssdsssssssssxssssssdssssssssssssssxsdssxsssssxssssssssdxsxsssssdsssssssssssssssssxdssssssssssssssxssxssssssssssssssxsxssssxdsssssxsssxxsssssssssssssdssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssdsssssssdxsdxsssxssdsssxssssssssssssssxssssssssxssxxddxssdssssssssssxsxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssdssdsssdsssxsssxssssdssxsssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssxsssxxssssssssxssxssxssssssssdssssxsssssssssdssssssxdssssssssssxsssssssssssssssxsssssssxsssxssssdsssssxsssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssdsssssssssssxsxsssssssssssssssxsssssssxssssssssssdssdsssssssssxssssssssxsssssssssssssssxssxsssdssssssssssxsdsssdsxssssssssssxdsssssssssssssxdsssxsssssssssssdsxssssxsxsssssssssssssssxsssssssssssdxssssssxssssdssssssssssssssxxsssssssssssdxssssxsdsssssdsssssssxxsssssssssxssssssssssxxsssssssxsxssssssxsxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssdsssxsssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssxxsdssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssxxssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssxsssxsssssssxssssssxsdxssssssssxsxsssssssssxssssssssssssssssssdssssxssssxdssssxssssssxsddssxssxsssssssssssssssssssdssssxdsssxssxsdssssssssssssssssssxssxsdsdsxssssssssxsdsssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssxssssxsssssssssssssssdsxssssxssxssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssxsxsssssssdsssssxxssssssdsssxsssssssssssssssssssssxssxxsssxssssssssxssssssssssssssxssssdsxsssssdsssssssssssssssssssxxssssxssssdssssxsssssssssssssssssssdsssssxsssxsssxsssssssxsssdsxxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssxdsxssssssssxsssssssssssssssxsssssssssxssxsssssssssssdsssssssssssdsssssssssdssssdxsdsxsssxssssssssssxssssxsssssssssssdssssxssssssssssssssssssdsxsssssssssxssdsssssxxsssxssxssxsssssssxsssssssxssssssxsssssssssssxxssxxsxsxdsdsssssssxssssxsssdxsssxxsssssxssxsssssssxsssdsdsssxdsssssdssssssxssssxssssxssssssssssssssssssssdsssssxsxssssxssdssssxsssssssssxsssxssxsssssdssxsssssssdxsxssssxssdsssdsssxsssssssssssssssxssssssxsssxsxsdsssssddsssssssxssdsssxssdssssssssssxxxsssxsssdsssssssdssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxxsxssxxsssssssssssssxsssssssssssssxsssssssssssxsxsxssssssssssdsssssssssssssxsxxsssssssxssssssssdsxsxsssssssdsssssxdsssxsssssxssxssssssssxssxsssdsssssdsssssxdsssssssssssssssssxssdsxsssssxsssssssdssssssxsxssssssssssssdsxsssssxssdsssdssxssdsssxssssssssxsdsdsssssssxxsssssxdxxsssdssssxsssssssdsssxssdxsxssssssxdssssssssssxxsxsxssssssxssdsxssssssxsdssssssssxsssssssxsssssxssssssxxsssssssdsssdssssssxsssxssssxssssssssxssxssssssssxdsssxssssssxdssssssssssssssxdssxssxsdssssssxsssssxxxxssssxxssdsssssssssssssssdsssssxsxsxssdsssssssxsssxsxssssssssssssssxsssssssdxxsssxssxxssxssssssxssssssssxxssssssdsssxxssssssssssssssssxdsssssdssssssxsssxssssssssxssdsssxxsdssssssssxsssssxdsssssssxssssxssssssssssssssssssssssdssssxssssssssxsssssxsssssssssssxsssxsssssssdsdssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdsssssssxssssxssdxssxxssxssxsssxsssssssxsssssdsxsssssssssssssssssssxssssdsssxsssssssssssxsssssdsssdssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssxsssxsssdsssssssssdssssxssssdsssxsssxssssdssxsssxssssssxsssxsxssssssssssssssssxxssssssdxssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssdssssssxxxsssxssssssssxsssssssdsssssssssssssdsssssssdsssxdxssdsdssssssssssssssdssxsssssssxxxsxssssssssssssxsssssdssssdssxsxsssssssxssssssssssssssssssdxssssssssssssssssdssssssssssxssssssxsssxssxssssssxxsxssssssssxsssdxdxssssssxxsssssxsssssxxxssssssssssssxdsssssssssssssssssssssdsssssssssxxxsssxsssssssxsxsssssxsdsssssssxsssssssssssxxxxssssssssdsssxsssssssssssssssdsssssssssddsxssssssxsxsssssssssssssxssssssssssssssdsxsssssssdsssxssssssssxsssdssssxsssssxdssssssssssssssssssssxssxsxssxsssdsssdssssxsxssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssxsssxssssssssssssdssdsxsxsssssssxsssssssssssssxsssssxsssssssssssssssssxsssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssdsssssxdsssxdxsssssssxsssssssxxssssssssssssssssssssssssssdsssssdsxssssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdxxxssxsxsssxsssssssssssxssssssdssxsxsxsssxsssssssssssssssxssxsssssdsdssssssssxssssssssssssddssssssssssdssssssssssssxssssxssssxssssssssxssssxssssdsssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssxsssdsssssxsssssssssssssssdsssxssssssdsxssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssxdssssssssssdssssssssssssssssssxssssxxxssssssdssssdssssssxssssxdsxsxsssdsssssssssssdssdssssdsdssdssssssssssssssssssssssssssdssssxssssssssssssssssssssxsxssssssxssssxsxsssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssxsssssssssssxssxsssxsxsssssssssdsssssssssssxsssssssxsssssssxsxsssssssxssxssssxxsssssssxssxssdsssssssssssssssxxxxssssssssssssdssssssssxsssxsxdxxsxsssssssxsssssxssxssxdsssssdxssssssssdxssssxssxssssssxsdxxsssssssxsssxsdssssssdssxsssssssxssssssssssssxssssdsxssxssssssssssssssxsssssssssxsssxssssxsssssssssssxssssxsssxsssxsssssdsssxsxsssssssdsssxsxssssssssssssssssssssxsssxxsssssxsssdsssdssssxsxxssssdsssssssssssssssssssxsxssssxsxsssxssssxsxssssssssxsssssxxssxssssxxsssssxssssssxssssssxsssssxssssssssssssssdsssssssssssdssssxsssdxsssssssssssssssssssxsssssxssxssssssssssssssdssssxsssssssssxdssssssssssxssssssdxssxdsxssdsssxssssssssssxssssssxsxsxssxsdssssssxssssssssssssxssssssxsxxssxsxssssdsssssssssssssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssxsssssssssssssssssxssssxsssssssssdsssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdxssssssssxssxxssxsxssssssxxxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssxsdsxsssssdssxsssxssssssdxsxssxsdssssssxsssssxsssxssssdsxssssssxssssdxxsssssssdsxsxssssssxssssssssssxsssssssssssssxssxdxxxssxssxsxssssssdsxxsxxsxssssssxxssssssssssxsxsssssssssssssssssssssdxssssssssssxssxdssxssssxsssssdsssssssssxssxssssxssxssssssxsxssxsssxssxsssxxssssssxsssssssssssssssxssssssssxsdssssssssssssxsssxssssxsssssssssssssdssssssxxxssssxsssssssssdssssssssdsxxsxssxssxxxsssssxsssssssssssxsssssssssxsssssxxssssxsssssssssxssssdsssssssssxsssxsxssssxsssssxssssxsdsxxsssssxsdsssssssssdsssxsssssxsdssssssssxssssxssssssssdssssxxsssssssdssssssxsssxsssssssxssssssssssssssdxssssxssdssdssssxsssssxsssssssssssxssssssssssxsssssxssxssssxsssssxssssssssssssssssssdsdsssssssssssxssssssxxxxsssssssxsssxsssxssssssssssssssssssssxsssdssssssssxsssddssssxsssxsssssxsssssssssxsssssssdsssssssssssssxsxsssssssssssssssssxssssssssssdxxsssxxsssssssssssxsssssssssdsxxsxdsssssssssssssssssssssssssdsssssssssssssssxsssssssxssssssssssssxssssssssssssxssdsssxssssssssssssdssssssssxssssssssxsssssssssssxssssssxsxssssxssssxssssssssdsdxsssssssssssssxsssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssxxsssssddsxsssxssssssxssxsxsssdsssssxsssxsssssdsssssssdsssssssssxsssssxsssssxssssssssssssssdsssxssssdssxssdsssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssxssssssssssxsssssssxsssssxssxssxsssssssxsssssssxssssssssxsssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssdxsssssdxssssssssssssssssssssssxsxsxssssssssssssssdssxssxsssssxssssssxsxxsssssssdssssssxxssssssssssssssssssxsxssssssssssssssssssssssdsxsxssdssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssxssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssxsssssssdssssssssssxxsssssxsdssssssssxssssssssssssxsssssxsdxxsxssssssssssxssssssssssssssssxssdsssssxssssssxssssxssssssssxdsssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssdsssxsssssssssssssssssxssxssssssssssssssdssxssssssssssssxssssxsssssssssssssssssxsssxssssssssxssssssxsxssssdsssssxssssssssssssssssxssssssssxsxssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssdssssssdssxsssssssssssssssssssssxssxxdssssssssdssssssssssssssssxssssssxsssssssssxssssssssssssssxxsssssssssxsxsssssssssssssssxssssssxssssssssxxsssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssxssssxssssxssdsssssssssxsssxxxxsssxxsssssssssssxsxsxssssssxsssxssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssdsssxssssdxssssxssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssxsxsssssssssdssdssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdssssssssssdssssxsssxssssssssssssdssssssssxxssssdsssxssssxssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssdsssssssssssssdsssssssssxssssssssssssssssssdssssssssssssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssxsssssssssssssxsxssssdsssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssxsssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdsssxsxssxxssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssxssssssdssssssxssssxssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdssssssxsssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssxxxssdsssssssxssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssxssssssssxsssssssssssxssssssxssssssxssdssssssssdsxsssdssssssssssxsssssssxsssxsssxssssssssxsssssxsssssssssssssssxsxsxxssssssssssxsssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssxssssxsdssssdssdssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssxdsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxxdsssxsxsssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssxssssssssssssssdssdsssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdssxssssssssssssxssssxsssssssssdssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssxssssssssssxsssxsssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsxssxssssssxssssssssxsssssssssssssdsxsssdxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssxsssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssxssssssssdssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssxsxsssssdsssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssssdsssssdsssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssdsssssssxsdssssssssxsssxsssssssssdssssssxssssssssxsssssxsssssxsssssssssssssxxsssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssxssdsssssdssssssdsssxdssssssssssssssxsssxssssssdssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssxssdsssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssdssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssxxssssssssssssdsssssdxsssssssxsssxssssssssssssxsssxxsssssssssdxsxssxxsssssssssssssssdsxssssssssssxdssxsssssssssssssxsssssdsxssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssdxssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssxssssssssssssssssdxsssssdxssssssssssssssxssssssssssssdsssssssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdsssdxsssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssxxsssssxsssssssxsssxsxsssssssxssssssssssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssxxsssssxsssssssssssssssssssxsssssssxssssssssxsxsxsssssxsssssssssssssssssssssxxssxsssssssssssxssssssssssxssssdsssssssssssssxsssdsssssssssssxsssssssxssxsxssssssssssssssssssxxsssssssssxssssssssssssssssddsssssssdsssssssssssddsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssxsdssssssssssssxsssssssxsssssssxxsssssssssssssxssssssxsssssssssssxsssssxssxsxsssdsxxssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssxssssxdssssssdxssssssssssssssxsssssxsssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdssxssxssssssssssssxssssxssssxxssssssxssssxxsssxssssssssssxsssssssxssssxssssssssxsssssssssxsssxsssssxsssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssxssssssxssssssssssssxsssssxssssxsssssxssssssssssxsssssxsssssssssssssssssxssssxsdssssxssddsssssdsssssxssssssdsssssssssssssssdsdssxsxsssdssssssssssxsssssxxssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdsssxsssxsssssssssxssssssssssssssxssssssxsxsssssdsssssssxssxsssxssssssssssssssxxssssssdsssssssssssssssxssssxsssssssssssssxssssssssssssxssssssssssssxsssssssssssssxsxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssxssssssssssdxssssssssssdssxssssssssssssssssssssdssssssssssssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssdssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdxsssssssssssxssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssdsssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssxsdsssssdssxsssssssssssssssxsssxsssssssssxssdssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssdssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssssxssssssssssdxsssssxsssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssxsssdssssssssssssssssssdsssxsssssssssssxsssdssssxsxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxsssssssssssssssssssssxsdssssssssssdsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssxssssxssssssssssssssssssssssssssx" }, "entrySpectrum": { "applications2025": 764250, "raisedDisclosed2025": 4186, "raisedSharePct": 0.55, "ofFundedRaiseAgainPct": 47, "ofFundedPublicTrackPct": 3, "caveat": "The two ends are counted by different instruments on different populations and must never be multiplied together into a single funnel probability. An EIN application is not a company, and the trajectory arm follows only the funded. This is the SHAPE of the spectrum, not a survival probability for any one founder." }, "h2": { "aiLedSharePct": 25.3, "crude": { "AI_LED": { "n": 5601, "observable": 4933, "dark": 550, "darkPct": 11.15 }, "NOT_AI_LED": { "n": 16519, "observable": 14871, "dark": 1479, "darkPct": 9.95 }, "ratio": 1.12 }, "adjusted": { "AI_LED": 11.04, "NOT_AI_LED": 9.96, "ratio": 1.11 }, "monthsCompared": 18, "monthsWhereAiLedWorse": 10, "caveat": "This compares launches that LEAD WITH AI IN THE TITLE against launches that do not - not AI companies against non-AI companies, because a short title under-reports. The gap is about one point on a base of ten, and the direction reverses in 8 of 18 launch months. Whatever it is, it is roughly twenty times smaller than the funded-versus-unfunded gap." }, "cohortRibbon": { "rows": [ { "month": "2025-01", "n": 910, "serving": 630, "dark": 165, "excluded": 115, "ageMonths": 20, "observable": 795, "servingPct": 79.2 }, { "month": "2025-02", "n": 861, "serving": 626, "dark": 146, "excluded": 89, "ageMonths": 19, "observable": 772, "servingPct": 81.1 }, { "month": "2025-03", "n": 1070, "serving": 760, "dark": 196, "excluded": 114, "ageMonths": 18, "observable": 956, "servingPct": 79.5 }, { "month": "2025-04", "n": 1044, "serving": 711, "dark": 203, "excluded": 130, "ageMonths": 17, "observable": 914, "servingPct": 77.8 }, { "month": "2025-05", "n": 1106, "serving": 798, "dark": 200, "excluded": 108, "ageMonths": 16, "observable": 998, "servingPct": 80 }, { "month": "2025-06", "n": 938, "serving": 657, "dark": 189, "excluded": 92, "ageMonths": 15, "observable": 846, "servingPct": 77.7 }, { "month": "2025-07", "n": 1094, "serving": 783, "dark": 218, "excluded": 93, "ageMonths": 14, "observable": 1001, "servingPct": 78.2 }, { "month": "2025-08", "n": 1054, "serving": 748, "dark": 141, "excluded": 165, "ageMonths": 13, "observable": 889, "servingPct": 84.1 }, { "month": "2025-09", "n": 1004, "serving": 789, "dark": 86, "excluded": 129, "ageMonths": 12, "observable": 875, "servingPct": 90.2 }, { "month": "2025-10", "n": 975, "serving": 795, "dark": 71, "excluded": 109, "ageMonths": 11, "observable": 866, "servingPct": 91.8 }, { "month": "2025-11", "n": 1042, "serving": 890, "dark": 46, "excluded": 106, "ageMonths": 10, "observable": 936, "servingPct": 95.1 }, { "month": "2025-12", "n": 1384, "serving": 1172, "dark": 57, "excluded": 155, "ageMonths": 9, "observable": 1229, "servingPct": 95.4 }, { "month": "2026-01", "n": 1783, "serving": 1480, "dark": 89, "excluded": 214, "ageMonths": 8, "observable": 1569, "servingPct": 94.3 }, { "month": "2026-02", "n": 2208, "serving": 1841, "dark": 87, "excluded": 280, "ageMonths": 7, "observable": 1928, "servingPct": 95.5 }, { "month": "2026-03", "n": 1977, "serving": 1745, "dark": 53, "excluded": 179, "ageMonths": 6, "observable": 1798, "servingPct": 97.1 }, { "month": "2026-04", "n": 1268, "serving": 1173, "dark": 26, "excluded": 69, "ageMonths": 5, "observable": 1199, "servingPct": 97.8 }, { "month": "2026-05", "n": 986, "serving": 868, "dark": 26, "excluded": 92, "ageMonths": 4, "observable": 894, "servingPct": 97.1 }, { "month": "2026-06", "n": 1416, "serving": 1309, "dark": 30, "excluded": 77, "ageMonths": 3, "observable": 1339, "servingPct": 97.8 } ], "caveat": "One band per launch month. Band length is exposure time; the frayed share is what was no longer serving at the single observation. It is NOT a timeline of when anything stopped - we looked once, so no date of failure is known or implied." }, "survivalCurve": { "arm": "C", "hostsObserved": 22120, "curve": [ { "ageMonths": 3, "observable": 1309, "serving": 1246, "dark": 30, "moved": 33, "excluded": 74, "servingPct": 95.2, "darkPct": 2.3 }, { "ageMonths": 4, "observable": 898, "serving": 854, "dark": 24, "moved": 20, "excluded": 91, "servingPct": 95.1, "darkPct": 2.7 }, { "ageMonths": 5, "observable": 1168, "serving": 1112, "dark": 26, "moved": 30, "excluded": 69, "servingPct": 95.2, "darkPct": 2.2 }, { "ageMonths": 6, "observable": 1798, "serving": 1698, "dark": 52, "moved": 48, "excluded": 174, "servingPct": 94.4, "darkPct": 2.9 }, { "ageMonths": 7, "observable": 1937, "serving": 1798, "dark": 87, "moved": 52, "excluded": 286, "servingPct": 92.8, "darkPct": 4.5 }, { "ageMonths": 8, "observable": 1576, "serving": 1429, "dark": 91, "moved": 56, "excluded": 210, "servingPct": 90.7, "darkPct": 5.8 }, { "ageMonths": 9, "observable": 1231, "serving": 1130, "dark": 58, "moved": 43, "excluded": 155, "servingPct": 91.8, "darkPct": 4.7 }, { "ageMonths": 10, "observable": 954, "serving": 859, "dark": 47, "moved": 48, "excluded": 107, "servingPct": 90, "darkPct": 4.9 }, { "ageMonths": 11, "observable": 870, "serving": 768, "dark": 72, "moved": 30, "excluded": 110, "servingPct": 88.3, "darkPct": 8.3 }, { "ageMonths": 12, "observable": 863, "serving": 749, "dark": 82, "moved": 32, "excluded": 127, "servingPct": 86.8, "darkPct": 9.5 }, { "ageMonths": 13, "observable": 892, "serving": 723, "dark": 138, "moved": 31, "excluded": 164, "servingPct": 81.1, "darkPct": 15.5 }, { "ageMonths": 14, "observable": 988, "serving": 721, "dark": 215, "moved": 52, "excluded": 92, "servingPct": 73, "darkPct": 21.8 }, { "ageMonths": 15, "observable": 870, "serving": 632, "dark": 193, "moved": 45, "excluded": 98, "servingPct": 72.6, "darkPct": 22.2 }, { "ageMonths": 16, "observable": 990, "serving": 718, "dark": 201, "moved": 71, "excluded": 105, "servingPct": 72.5, "darkPct": 20.3 }, { "ageMonths": 17, "observable": 885, "serving": 624, "dark": 200, "moved": 61, "excluded": 125, "servingPct": 70.5, "darkPct": 22.6 }, { "ageMonths": 18, "observable": 988, "serving": 700, "dark": 203, "moved": 85, "excluded": 118, "servingPct": 70.9, "darkPct": 20.5 }, { "ageMonths": 19, "observable": 778, "serving": 575, "dark": 145, "moved": 58, "excluded": 92, "servingPct": 73.9, "darkPct": 18.6 }, { "ageMonths": 20, "observable": 786, "serving": 578, "dark": 160, "moved": 48, "excluded": 115, "servingPct": 73.5, "darkPct": 20.4 }, { "ageMonths": 21, "observable": 26, "serving": 17, "dark": 8, "moved": 1, "excluded": 1, "servingPct": 65.4, "darkPct": 30.8 } ], "method": "Each domain has a known launch date and one observation date, so age at observation is known. This is the epidemiological cross-sectional estimate, not a longitudinal one.", "assumption": "⛔ LOAD-BEARING: launch cohorts are assumed EXCHANGEABLE — a Jan 2025 launch comparable to a Jun 2026 launch except for exposure time. Show HN volume grew sharply across this window, so later cohorts are larger and may differ in kind. If the population changed, this curve confounds AGE with COHORT. A longitudinal round 2 is what confirms or kills it.", "caveat": "CROSS-SECTIONAL, not longitudinal. Age at observation is known; the cohort was not followed forward. If the launch population changed across the window, this confounds age with cohort. The curve declines monotonically, which is evidence against that confound but does not eliminate it." }, "mxCrossCheck": { "A": { "checked": 53, "stillRunMail": 25, "ratePct": 47.2 }, "C": { "checked": 2032, "stillRunMail": 231, "ratePct": 11.4 }, "caveat": "A second signal is only informative where the first population had it to lose. Established vendors that go dark often still run mail; an indie side-project domain frequently never had MX records at all, so \"no mail\" there often means \"never had mail\" rather than \"mail went away\"." }, "confirmation": { "byArm": { "A": { "darkOnFirstLook": 53, "reproduced": 53, "flipped": 0 }, "B": { "darkOnFirstLook": 6, "reproduced": 6, "flipped": 0 }, "C": { "darkOnFirstLook": 2029, "reproduced": 2023, "flipped": 6 } }, "all": { "darkOnFirstLook": 2088, "reproduced": 2082, "flipped": 6, "reproductionRatePct": 99.71 }, "caveat": "Both passes ran the same day. This rules out a momentary blip. It does NOT rule out a multi-day DNS migration, and it is a reproduction rate, never a survival measurement." }, "declaredVsObserved": { "byDeclared": { "Active": { "n": 1259, "dark": 4, "serving": 1238, "excluded": 17 }, "Inactive": { "n": 12, "dark": 0, "serving": 10, "excluded": 2 }, "Acquired": { "n": 10, "dark": 2, "serving": 6, "excluded": 2 } }, "declaredAt": "2026-09-04", "caveat": "⛔ A serving website is weak evidence a company is alive - domains outlive companies. This is a finding about the GAP between a public record and infrastructure, in both directions. It is not a claim that any specific company is operating." }, "formation": { "source": "SEC Form D - every US company raising disclosed private capital is legally required to file", "quarters": 50, "series": [ { "q": "2014q1", "total": 11259, "tech": 1117, "operating": 2522, "fund": 6713, "other": 2024 }, { "q": "2014q2", "total": 8971, "tech": 1246, "operating": 2746, "fund": 4227, "other": 1998 }, { "q": "2014q3", "total": 8680, "tech": 1270, "operating": 2713, "fund": 3941, "other": 2026 }, { "q": "2014q4", "total": 9074, "tech": 1232, "operating": 2631, "fund": 4310, "other": 2133 }, { "q": "2015q1", "total": 11436, "tech": 1151, "operating": 2507, "fund": 6712, "other": 2217 }, { "q": "2015q2", "total": 9371, "tech": 1340, "operating": 2710, "fund": 4516, "other": 2145 }, { "q": "2015q3", "total": 9036, "tech": 1276, "operating": 2692, "fund": 4342, "other": 2002 }, { "q": "2015q4", "total": 9123, "tech": 1249, "operating": 2580, "fund": 4332, "other": 2211 }, { "q": "2016q1", "total": 11764, "tech": 1243, "operating": 2564, "fund": 6993, "other": 2207 }, { "q": "2016q2", "total": 9625, "tech": 1274, "operating": 2643, "fund": 4791, "other": 2191 }, { "q": "2016q3", "total": 9084, "tech": 1198, "operating": 2515, "fund": 4431, "other": 2138 }, { "q": "2016q4", "total": 9313, "tech": 1187, "operating": 2487, "fund": 4560, "other": 2266 }, { "q": "2017q1", "total": 12065, "tech": 1187, "operating": 2504, "fund": 7218, "other": 2343 }, { "q": "2017q2", "total": 10269, "tech": 1184, "operating": 2533, "fund": 5336, "other": 2400 }, { "q": "2017q3", "total": 9667, "tech": 1191, "operating": 2463, "fund": 4801, "other": 2403 }, { "q": "2017q4", "total": 9940, "tech": 1225, "operating": 2517, "fund": 4942, "other": 2481 }, { "q": "2018q1", "total": 12542, "tech": 1296, "operating": 2639, "fund": 7395, "other": 2508 }, { "q": "2018q2", "total": 10928, "tech": 1335, "operating": 2698, "fund": 5842, "other": 2388 }, { "q": "2018q3", "total": 10446, "tech": 1277, "operating": 2600, "fund": 5252, "other": 2594 }, { "q": "2018q4", "total": 10769, "tech": 1243, "operating": 2496, "fund": 5656, "other": 2617 }, { "q": "2019q1", "total": 12242, "tech": 1162, "operating": 2453, "fund": 7200, "other": 2589 }, { "q": "2019q2", "total": 11679, "tech": 1290, "operating": 2624, "fund": 6403, "other": 2652 }, { "q": "2019q3", "total": 10906, "tech": 1202, "operating": 2503, "fund": 5652, "other": 2751 }, { "q": "2019q4", "total": 10977, "tech": 1135, "operating": 2409, "fund": 5795, "other": 2773 }, { "q": "2020q1", "total": 12703, "tech": 1084, "operating": 2202, "fund": 7764, "other": 2737 }, { "q": "2020q2", "total": 10202, "tech": 1063, "operating": 2115, "fund": 6012, "other": 2075 }, { "q": "2020q3", "total": 10856, "tech": 1099, "operating": 2231, "fund": 6228, "other": 2397 }, { "q": "2020q4", "total": 12328, "tech": 1191, "operating": 2438, "fund": 7023, "other": 2867 }, { "q": "2021q1", "total": 14880, "tech": 1266, "operating": 2661, "fund": 9244, "other": 2975 }, { "q": "2021q2", "total": 15115, "tech": 1469, "operating": 2689, "fund": 9210, "other": 3216 }, { "q": "2021q3", "total": 14843, "tech": 1479, "operating": 2728, "fund": 9000, "other": 3115 }, { "q": "2021q4", "total": 16583, "tech": 1432, "operating": 2680, "fund": 10219, "other": 3684 }, { "q": "2022q1", "total": 18558, "tech": 1422, "operating": 2639, "fund": 12171, "other": 3748 }, { "q": "2022q2", "total": 16124, "tech": 1284, "operating": 2400, "fund": 10170, "other": 3554 }, { "q": "2022q3", "total": 14187, "tech": 1244, "operating": 2385, "fund": 8553, "other": 3249 }, { "q": "2022q4", "total": 13571, "tech": 1180, "operating": 2304, "fund": 8103, "other": 3164 }, { "q": "2023q1", "total": 14227, "tech": 1109, "operating": 2240, "fund": 9062, "other": 2925 }, { "q": "2023q2", "total": 13783, "tech": 1159, "operating": 2300, "fund": 8544, "other": 2939 }, { "q": "2023q3", "total": 12678, "tech": 1044, "operating": 2130, "fund": 7759, "other": 2789 }, { "q": "2023q4", "total": 12281, "tech": 1065, "operating": 2160, "fund": 7433, "other": 2688 }, { "q": "2024q1", "total": 14208, "tech": 1057, "operating": 2100, "fund": 9253, "other": 2855 }, { "q": "2024q2", "total": 13699, "tech": 1040, "operating": 2135, "fund": 8480, "other": 3084 }, { "q": "2024q3", "total": 13222, "tech": 1003, "operating": 2083, "fund": 8199, "other": 2940 }, { "q": "2024q4", "total": 13611, "tech": 990, "operating": 2036, "fund": 8694, "other": 2881 }, { "q": "2025q1", "total": 14757, "tech": 1054, "operating": 2061, "fund": 9898, "other": 2798 }, { "q": "2025q2", "total": 13146, "tech": 1007, "operating": 1953, "fund": 8533, "other": 2660 }, { "q": "2025q3", "total": 13979, "tech": 1106, "operating": 2132, "fund": 8766, "other": 3081 }, { "q": "2025q4", "total": 14637, "tech": 1019, "operating": 2051, "fund": 9457, "other": 3129 }, { "q": "2026q1", "total": 15734, "tech": 992, "operating": 1932, "fund": 10848, "other": 2954 }, { "q": "2026q2", "total": 16640, "tech": 1147, "operating": 2335, "fund": 11273, "other": 3032 } ], "caveat": "Form D sees only companies that RAISE. A founder who never raises never files one, so this series can only ever describe the funded slice - which is exactly why the Census arm is beside it." }, "founding": { "source": "US Census Business Formation Statistics, built from IRS EIN applications", "series": { "_": "FOUNDING ARM — US business applications (IRS EIN filings) by industry and year, from Census BFS.", "_whyNotFormD": "Form D sees only companies that RAISE. This sees every new business that applied for an EIN, funded or not, which is the population the post-AI founder argument is actually about.", "_caveat": "⛔ An EIN application is an INTENT to operate, not a going concern. NAICS 541 is broad and holds consultancies and agencies alongside software firms. Never label these \"startups founded\" or \"software companies\".", "_finding": "Two independent federal sources point opposite ways: business applications up sharply, companies raising disclosed capital down. The boom is real and it is unfunded.", "source": "https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/csv/naics3.csv", "generatedAt": "2026-09-04T22:58:04.461Z", "years": [ "2006", "2007", "2008", "2009", "2010", "2011", "2012", "2013", "2014", "2015", "2016", "2017", "2018", "2019", "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "groups": { "513": { "code": "513", "name": "Publishing Industries (incl. software publishers)", "byYear": { "2006": 8730, "2007": 8680, "2008": 9000, "2009": 8190, "2010": 5680, "2011": 9050, "2012": 10590, "2013": 10360, "2014": 11450, "2015": 12100, "2016": 12150, "2017": 17980, "2018": 15770, "2019": 15310, "2020": 18520, "2021": 20430, "2022": 19400, "2023": 23380, "2024": 25270, "2025": 37130 } }, "517": { "code": "517", "name": "Telecommunications", "byYear": { "2006": 8580, "2007": 9120, "2008": 10430, "2009": 10070, "2010": 9540, "2011": 9530, "2012": 8050, "2013": 7090, "2014": 7210, "2015": 9700, "2016": 11890, "2017": 11780, "2018": 10760, "2019": 9670, "2020": 9800, "2021": 9960, "2022": 9300, "2023": 10160, "2024": 9290, "2025": 9660 } }, "518": { "code": "518", "name": "Computing Infrastructure, Data Processing, Hosting", "byYear": { "2006": 6310, "2007": 4480, "2008": 4580, "2009": 3840, "2010": 4450, "2011": 4220, "2012": 3570, "2013": 3230, "2014": 3350, "2015": 3220, "2016": 3260, "2017": 3840, "2018": 4180, "2019": 3810, "2020": 4220, "2021": 5840, "2022": 6320, "2023": 6260, "2024": 6500, "2025": 6490 } }, "519": { "code": "519", "name": "Web Search Portals and Other Information Services", "byYear": { "2006": 2520, "2007": 2580, "2008": 2220, "2009": 2070, "2010": 2050, "2011": 2190, "2012": 2250, "2013": 2050, "2014": 2030, "2015": 2000, "2016": 1950, "2017": 1900, "2018": 1990, "2019": 1520, "2020": 1640, "2021": 1610, "2022": 1200, "2023": 1080, "2024": 1130, "2025": 1100 } }, "541": { "code": "541", "name": "Professional, Scientific and Technical Services", "byYear": { "2006": 328550, "2007": 345060, "2008": 357560, "2009": 362940, "2010": 369530, "2011": 381770, "2012": 373790, "2013": 374390, "2014": 386650, "2015": 392110, "2016": 408960, "2017": 423850, "2018": 456940, "2019": 457160, "2020": 534360, "2021": 612900, "2022": 606270, "2023": 674660, "2024": 668280, "2025": 764250 } } } }, "caveat": "An EIN application is an intent to operate, not a going concern, and NAICS 541 is a broad category. The directions diverge sharply enough that no definitional quibble reconciles them." }, "trajectory": { "source": "SEC filing histories for every tech company that filed Form D in the window", "cohortSize": 4798, "resolved": 4798, "failed": 0, "raiseDistribution": { "1": 2541, "2": 953, "3": 483, "4": 284, "5": 537 }, "multiRaise": 2257, "publicTrack": 146, "completeness": "4798/4798 resolved (100.0%). The gate refuses to write below 90%: a partial pull from a rate-limited endpoint is a SKEWED sample, not a small one.", "strength": "Presence of a filing is STRONG evidence of life on a dated day. Absence is WEAK evidence of death: most companies raise once. raises:1 is never an outcome.", "caveat": "A filing is documentary proof a company was alive on a date. Its ABSENCE proves very little - a company that stops raising has not necessarily stopped operating." } }